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From bags to coffee imports, how American small business owners are feeling the effects of higher fuel costs

Rising fuel prices are squeezing some American small businesses in ways that go far beyond the pump.

When Wonderstate Coffee raised prices last quarter as coffee bean costs rose, it wasn’t expecting its import costs to spike less than three months later.

The Wisconsin-based coffee roaster is one small business feeling the effects of the US and Israel’s war with Iran, which has sent fuel prices skyrocketing past $100 for a barrel of oil and interrupted supply chains.

Wonderstate co-owner Caleb Nicholes told Business Insider that the company’s import rates have increased by 5% to 8% amid soaring fuel prices. Freight costs have also gone up. The company also sources many of its beans from Ethiopia, and the supply itself has needed more protection and had to be rerouted.

“Our shipments leaving from Ethiopia need extra insurance now because of the war,” Nicholes said. “Shipping vessels have been hit in previous years.”

All that has raised serious concerns for Nicholes about the impact on his bottom line, saying that fuel prices may “impact our profitability in a way that will be difficult to recoup this year.”

Wonderstate isn’t the only small business evaluating its supply chain.

Some companies, like bag maker Bogg, are planning ahead to try to combat rising fuel costs. However, CEO Kim Vaccarella said, it’s a risk.

Bogg, which makes its tote bags from imported plastic, has committed to buying products six months in advance. Vaccarella said the timeline is “atypical” for the business and pacing ahead of its customer order forecasts, but it’s necessary “to mitigate supply chain risk.” Bogg is also evaluating the timing of future launches based on material availability.

Some businesses already have a playbook for pricey gas

Some businesses have insulated themselves from the worst of the effects of rising fuel prices.

Arborist Brent Valentine told Business Insider that his business, Heartwood Tree Company in Madison, Wisconsin, has about a dozen trucks, multiple brush chippers, and numerous chainsaws that all need gas every day.

He said the company hasn’t felt much impact from higher fuel costs because it built its business around keeping consumption low.

Heartwood’s shop is located in-town and the team schedules jobs close to one another to keep miles low.

“We try to minimize our driving around,” he said. “It’s more the overall goal of consuming less fuel that drives our decisions” than geopolitical events.

Meanwhile, industry trends of larger equipment, heavier trucks, and longer drives mean some of his peers are likely facing hundreds of dollars in new weekly fuel expenses, Valentine said.

Smaller businesses must face their customers

Richard Trent is the executive director of Main Street Alliance, an advocacy organization made up of about 30,000 small business owners across the US. His members are wrestling with the possibility of passing costs down to customers.

“It’s delivery costs, supplier costs; it’s their employees getting to work, and it’s all going up at the same time,” Trent said.

It’s not as simple as the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, opening tomorrow and solving all their problems, Trent said. The effects of the war will be felt for “months and months down the road” as already thin margins are pressured by rising costs.

For small business owners, it’s personal because they’re often in direct communication with customers. They’re having to face consumers and explain why their products cost more, he said.




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Are you feeling AI fatigue at work? We want to hear from you

  • Software engineers have voiced burnout concerns in a world of vibe coding and frequent model launches.
  • Engineers say AI is making them more productive, but ultimately draining them.
  • Do you use AI tools at work and feel AI fatigue? Take our survey.

Software engineers are in the AI hot seat — and they’re feeling it.

Are you?

Facing pressures to keep their edge and avoid layoffs, software engineers are leaning into AI coding tools to help them do more, faster. But programmers have recently sounded the alarm that the productivity gains that come from AI can come at a mental cost.

Say, hello to AI fatigue.

Siddhant Khare, a software engineer who builds AI tools, recently struck a chord with his post about the topic, which he said “every engineer needs to confront.” He told Business Insider that some days he used to be able to focus on just one task, but now AI is constantly pulling him in different directions.

Steve Yegge, who worked at Amazon in the early days and spent 12 years at Google, said he and his friends have even started to take naps during the day to cope with exhausting AI coding sprints. He said that companies should consider imposing a 3-hour cap on AI-assisted work.

AI fatigue — which is notably different than simply being tired about hearing about AI or being pressured to use it at work — has become a hot topic among software engineers, but it can also show up in other industries.

Do you use AI at work? Take our survey on AI fatigue:




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OpenAI is feeling the heat from Google right now — for good reason

Two “code red” alerts — the first from a veteran tech giant worried about a buzzy AI upstart, the second from the AI upstart after the tech giant gained ground.

What a difference three years can make.

News of a recent Sam Altman memo to OpenAI employees, first reported by The Information, is reverberating around the tech world and highlighting the competitive heat it’s facing as Google narrows the gap in the AI race.

On Monday, Altman reportedly told OpenAI employees in an internal Slack memo that he was issuing a “code red” and that the company would be putting more resources into ChatGPT and delaying other products as a result.

Altman’s memo illustrates just how much the AI race has changed. In 2022, Google’s management issued its own “code red” in the wake of ChatGPT’s launch, a moment that illustrated in sharp relief just how far behind the search giant was in the AI race despite financing the breakthrough research that paved the way for AI’s development.

Three years later, it’s clear that OpenAI’s throne is under threat. Here are some of the pressure points it’s facing as Google nips at its heels.

Google is catching up

The elephant in the OpenAI room is Google’s Gemini 3 AI model, which debuted to widespread praise.

The model’s capabilities demonstrated that Google is no longer far behind in the AI race. It’s not just OpenAI that’s unnerved, either. Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company by market cap, recently found itself defending its AI chips after a report about Google’s own chip progress.

The search giant said in November that Gemini had more than 650 million monthly active users, a large increase from the 450 million such users it reported in July. In comparison, OpenAI has said nearly 800 million weekly active users.

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff recently said that he was ditching ChatGPT in favor of Gemini 3 because of Gemini’s “insane” improvement.

“Holy shit,” Benioff wrote on X last month. “I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane — reasoning, speed, images, video… everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed, again.”

Last month, Google launched “Nano Banana Pro,” its AI image generator, showcasing hyper-realistic images that users quickly used to imagine tech CEOs hanging out together or pretend famous Thanksgiving dinner table guests.

Altman’s “code red,” according to The Information’s report, specifically mentions Gemini 3 and teases a coming OpenAI model that it says tested “ahead” of Google’s flagship model, as well as mentions prioritizing OpenAI’s Imagegen image generation model for ChatGPT users.

Google’s advertising cash cow can fund its AI — while OpenAI faces a $1.4 trillion bill

The AI game is an expensive one, and Google has the advantage of being a cash-generating advertising juggernaut.

Sure, Google plans to spend between $91 billion and $93 billion this year on cap ex, much of which is going toward AI costs. But it also brought in $100 billion in revenue in just the last quarter alone — $74.18 billion of which came from its advertising business.

And unlike OpenAI, Google can leverage its massive size for a full-stack advantage, allowing it to control AI development from research to chip manufacturing to its in-house cloud, which hosts everything.

Meanwhile, some on Wall Street have raised concerns about OpenAI’s mounting AI spending commitments, which tally at least $1.4 trillion over the next eight years. In response, Altman has said OpenAI is on track to bring in $20 billion in revenue this year, and expects its annualized revenue to grow to hundreds of billions in the coming years.

But OpenAI is still figuring out its own ads business — the launch of which could be delayed by Altman’s “code red,” according to The Information.

OpenAI has a head start — but Google has a platform advantage

OpenAI hasn’t squandered its head start, and it’s landed some major wins this year.

In recent months, OpenAI has made significant plays into other industries, including social media with Sora, its TikTok-esque AI video generation app. In a direct shot at Google Chrome, OpenAI also launched Atlas, its own web browser.

And it sounds like OpenAI has more up its sleeve as it battles the bottleneck of lining up enough compute and energy to power its developments.

OpenAI executives have said compute constraints are holding back other initiatives, like making ChatGPT Pulse, a personalized update feature within the chatbot for Pro users, available to everyone. Last week, Bill Peebles, OpenAI’s head of Sora, announced that free users would face significant cuts in the number of videos they could generate per day.

ChatGPT also remains synonymous with AI — not unlike Google and online search. That will likely help continue to drive app downloads and usage and could also stave off Google’s attempts to convince users to switch to Gemini or Google’s other AI-infused products.

But humans are creatures of habit, and many already use a Google product or service everyday — a platform advantage that the tech giant is already utilizing to siphon away ChatGPT users.

Silicon Valley’s history is built on startup disrupting the status quo.

Now, with OpenAI (smartly) looking over its shoulder, we get to watch the AI race heat up as Google, a former startup, gets its AI legs and hits its stride.

For OpenAI, it’s a reminder that tech giants can put up quite a fight when facing the prospect of being disrupted — and sometimes, can turn the tables.

“I try not to think about competitors too much,” Altman said last May before critiquing Google’s aesthetic.

It sounds like those days are gone.




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