A judge on Friday ordered Arizona’s attorney general to temporarily pause its criminal case against Kalshi, handing a win to the Trump administration in its effort to stop states from regulating prediction markets.
FederalJudge Michael Liburdi’s decision to back the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the casecame at the end of a hectic week of arguments in which a lawyer for the federal regulator saida state criminal case would be a “flawed” way to settle hotly contested questions about whether prediction markets can list sports, politics, and other controversial markets.
State prosecutors filed 20 charges of illegal betting and election betting against Kalshi last month. The charges, all misdemeanors, characterize Kalshi’s contracts as the kind of bets that are either prohibited under Arizona law or require a state gambling license. The criminal case also had the effect of halting a federal challenge that Kalshi had filed to Arizona’s regulatory power.
Then the CFTC stepped in, suing Arizona and two other states earlier this month. The state on Friday argued that Congress never meant to let swaps that bear many similarities to sports bets take place on federally regulated exchanges. Liburdi issued an order that will prevent Arizona from moving forward with a criminal arraignment of Kalshi that had been scheduled for Monday.
“I will enter a temporary restraining order,” the judge said, granting the CFTC’s request to halt the state’s prosecution. He didn’t immediately state what the specific provisions of the order would be, but lawyers for the attorney general agreed to show up to criminal court first thing Monday and ask for their case against Kalshi to be paused.
Robert J. DeNault, a senior lawyer at Kalshi, hailed the decision on X, calling it “a step in the right direction.”
The CFTC’s leader, Michael Selig, has posted videos and made the rounds of podcasts in recent weeks to defend his agency’s authority to regulate prediction markets. The Trump administration has generally applied a light regulatory touch on the industry.
“Arizona’s decision to weaponize state criminal law against companies that comply with federal law sets a dangerous precedent, and the court’s order today sends a clear message that intimidation is not an acceptable tactic to circumvent federal law,” Selig said in a statement after the ruling.
Prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket have existed for years, but they experienced a surge in usage around the 2024 election.
Since Donald Trump returned to office, Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., has become a paid advisor to Kalshi, and an investment firm he works for invested in Polymarket. Kalshi also began hosting sports-related markets, which it had not done during the Biden administration.
Federal law prohibits commodities markets related to things like war, assassination, and “gaming,” but the specific meanings of those terms have been debated in court.
Many states, but especially those where the traditional gambling industry holds sway, like Nevada and New Jersey, have argued that the contracts on prediction markets relating to sports, and sometimes politics, are illegal. Some members of Congress have also proposed new laws to regulate prediction markets.
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Kevin O’Leary is betting big on Timothée Chalamet.
O’Leary said on the red carpet that he bet $1,000 that his “Marty Supreme” costar will win an Oscar.
Chalamet is up against Michael B. Jordan for best actor.
Kevin O’Leary is confident his “Marty Supreme” costar Timothée Chalamet is walking away with the best actor Oscar.
The “Shark Tank” star is so confident, in fact, he put money on it.
O’Leary, who plays tycoon Milton Rockwell in “Marty Supreme,” told Variety on the Oscars red carpet that he bet $1,000 on the betting app Kalshi that Chalamet will win the prize.
“I know the voting stopped long before that controversy happened,” O’Leary told the magazine, referring to a comment Chalamet made during a conversation with Matthew McConaughey earlier this month where he talked down the ballet and opera.
“I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera where it’s like, ‘Hey, keep this thing alive, even though no one cares about this anymore,'” Chalamet said.
Chalamet has been the frontrunner for the best actor Oscar until recently, when “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordon won the best actor prize at SAG’s Actor Awards. And O’Leary is right — Oscar voting did indeed close before Chalamet’s mini-controversy. So whether Mr. Wonderful wins or loses $1,000, it won’t be related to a love or hatred for opera and ballet.
First came the bets. Then came the bombs. Now comes the outrage.
On Saturday, while many Americans were waking up to news of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, some were betting money on what would happen next — and expressing confusion and anger over what was happening on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
The market-surveillance software company Bubblemaps said Saturday morning it had identified several new cryptocurrency wallets connected to Polymarket that collectively made over $1.2 million related to strikes on Iran.
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran
Most of these wallets:
• were funded in the last 24h • specifically bet for February 28 • bought “yes” hours before the strike pic.twitter.com/n3G6OIEOXt
Meanwhile, hours after the strikes began, Kalshi posted on X about the volatility in markets related to the ousting of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
BREAKING: The odds Ali Khamenei is out as Supreme Leader have surged to 68%
Reminder: Kalshi does not offer markets that settle on death.
If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve based on the last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death. pic.twitter.com/geL2CgdRwI
On Polymarket, at least $200 million was staked on four wagers related to US strikes on Iran, regime change, or Khamenei’s death. Kalshi, which is more regulated and barred by US law from offering markets related to war and assassination, recorded almost $55 million in contracts related to whether or not Khamenei would be “out” in the next several months before activity in those markets was halted on Saturday afternoon.
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The drip-drip of news and ambiguities in the contractual language on Kalshi and Polymarket led some users to think they had an edge as the day progressed. But several expressed outrage at the processing of their bets — or “trades,” as Kalshi calls them.
“Robbery. This platform is terrible,” wrote one Kalshi user, who posted an image showing a loss of $11.25 on a long-shot bet on Khamenei’s ouster.
While Kalshi only lists seven open markets on its “Iran” page, Polymarket had 187 Iran-related markets open as of Sunday morning, many with very little trading volume.
One that has since closed asked whether the US would “forcibly remove” Khamenei by March 31. Polymarket posted a “clarification” that the market resolved to “no” because the US had “merely contribute[d] to or assist[ed]” in the killing of Khamenei.
Some commenters urged that the outcome be disputed. Polymarket, where activity is logged on the Polygon blockchain, has a complex, decentralized resolution mechanism for many of its markets.
Markets that hinge partly on death are among the most controversial ones offered on prediction markets because they could create financial incentives for killing. In Israel, several people were reportedly arrested, and at least two were indicted in February based on their use of military secrets to make Polymarket bets.
In late February, six Democratic senators asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has emerged as the main regulator of US prediction markets, to take action against contracts that “incentivize physical injury or death,” citing several Polymarket contracts and not mentioning Kalshi.
Chris Murphy, another Democratic senator, said this weekend on X that he would introduce legislation “ASAP” to prevent “people around Trump” from “profiting off war.”
By the end of Saturday, Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour posted on X that bets on Khamenei’s ouster would be paid out for their value the minute before Israel and the US reportedly struck Iran. Users who bought contracts after that point would be partly reimbursed, he said.
Some people protested or expressed confusion over how their positions would resolve. Others were supportive of Kalshi’s decisions.
“90% of you never read any rules and are mad at Kalshi because you couldn’t make money off your lil $10,” one user said in the comment section on Kalshi. “Get a grip, start reading rules.”
Representatives for Kalshi and Polymarket didn’t immediately respond to questions sent by email on Sunday morning.
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Kalshi may be good for more than just making a quick buck.
A new research paper published by a trio of Federal Reserve economists suggests that the prediction market platform is a useful method for measuring macroeconomic expectations — and it may even be better than some traditional methods.
“Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers,” the researchers wrote.
The researchers found that Kalshi actually beat traditional methods for two different purposes.
The first was on forecasting inflation. The researchers found that when it comes to headline consumer price index (CPI), Kalshi’s expectations represented a “statistically significant improvement” over the Bloomberg consensus, an oft-cited aggregation of financial analysis forecasts.
The second was on predicting Fed rate decisions. The researchers found that the median and mode of Kalshi’s prediction markets have a “perfect forecast record” on the day before the Fed meeting, which is a “statistically significant improvement” over Fed Funds futures.
Kalshi is also useful because it provides real-time responses to events, offering more up-to-date information than typical survey and forecasting methods, according to the researchers.
The paper was greeted as welcome news by Kalshi, which has long pitched itself as a source of useful information about future events, rather than just a betting platform. CEO Tarek Mansour touted the paper on X on Wednesday.
“The Federal Reserve just put out an incredible paper about Kalshi’s data,” Mansour wrote.
Investors have been on the hunt for reliable economic events forecasting tools recently, as the reliability of government data has repeatedly been called into question.
Now they may be able to ascertain valuable information from a platform that has achieved undeniable popularity. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon revealed in January that the bank is considering an expansion into prediction markets, which may compel similar institutions to do the same
The paper comes as public scrutiny of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket picks up, with lawmakers raising concerns about potential insider trading and the proliferation of gambling.
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Kalshi said it experienced delays in fund transfers due to a Super Bowl traffic surge.
Kalshi’s cofounder said on X that users’ “money is safe and on the way.”
Kalshi and Polymarket are benefiting from a sharp interest in prediction markets.
Kalshi said that some transfers on its prediction markets app are delayed because of the high volume of traffic during the Super Bowl.
“Some deposits are delayed because of the amount of traffic and deposits we’re getting,” Kalshi cofounder Luana Lopes Lara wrote on X on Sunday evening. “Your money is safe and on the way, it will just take longer to land.”
On X, some Kalshi users said that they felt relieved to receive an explanation for why their deposits did not go through. Others demanded a refund, saying they saw no point in placing bets if the money didn’t arrive until halftime.
The company saw a significant spike in platform volume on Sunday. In an X post, Kalshi said it saw over $325 million in volume less than an hour before the championship game started.
Kalshi, founded in 2018, lets users bet on the outcome of events such as elections, sports matches, and economic indicators. For the Super Bowl, people could bet on the outcome of the New England Patriots versus the Seattle Seahawks game, as well as on which commercials would run and which song Bad Bunny would play first during his halftime show.
The startup and its rival, Polymarket, are winners of a big surge in interest in prediction markets. In addition to scheduled events, users can now also bet on questions ranging from the popularity of Labubu dolls to Elon Musk’s net worth.
While most of the sports world is still figuring out how to navigate the prediction market boom, NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo is going all-in.
The Milwaukee Bucks player announced he’s a shareholder in Kalshi in an X post on Friday.
“The internet is full of opinions. I decided it was time to make some of my own,” Antetokounmpo wrote.
Kalshi said Antetokounmpo will partner with the company on marketing, live events, and other activities. Other shareholders include Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Coinbase Ventures.
“I love the Kalshi markets and have been checking them often recently,” Antetokounmpo said in a press release. “I like to win. It’s clear to me Kalshi is going to be a winner, and I’m excited to be getting involved.”
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Prediction markets are platforms where online users can buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of various events, including presidential elections, the weather, and even the political future of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as popular platforms among users, who can make or lose large sums of money on all kinds of events unavailable in traditional gambling venues. The markets can often serve as measures of public opinion.
Some Kalshi users, for instance, got a payday earlier this week by wagering on Antetokounmpo’s future in the NBA.
Ahead of the league’s February 5 trade deadline, users speculated on whether Antetokounmpo would stay with the Milwaukee Bucks or retire from the league. Some also wagered on whether Milwaukee would trade Antetokounmpo to another team.
The contract amassed a trading volume of over $23 million.
Antetokounmpo, who ultimately remained with the Bucks, poked fun at the trade rumors in an X post on Thursday. “Legends don’t chase. They attract,” he wrote.
Following Antetokounmpo’s shareholder announcement, some fans expressed concern that he could be violating the NBA’s gambling policy and bemoaned the league’s recent embrace of sports gambling. The NBA now partners with FanDuel and displays betting odds during live broadcasts.
“A player partnering with a prediction market company? There is no conflict of interests here?” one X user asked.
A 2025 illegal sports gambling scandal involving Miami Heat player Terry Rozier and Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups highlighted the potential for players and coaches to influence games and betting outcomes. A federal investigation into the accusations is ongoing.
Kalshi said Antetokounmpo is prohibited from participating in its prediction markets.
“As an active player in the NBA, Antetokounmpo will be forbidden from trading on markets related to the NBA, per Kalshi’s strict terms of service that ban insider trading and market manipulation,” the company said in a press release.
Some US lawmakers have also raised concerns that prediction markets veer too closely to traditional gambling, which is subject to stricter regulations. In January, a lawmaker introduced a bill to ban government officials from engaging in insider trading in prediction markets.
Kalshi told Business Insider this month that the company has had “dozens of conversations” with lawmakers and is a “regulatory-first company.”
The 98th Academy Awards are coming up, and for prediction market bettors, tens of millions of dollars are on the line.
Since the nominees were announced on January 22, bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi have been wagering on which films, actors, directors, and more will claim the Oscar in each of the Academy’s 24 categories.
Prediction markets have experienced dramatic growth over the last year, drawing the attention of media companies, the ire of some state regulators, and the scrutiny of Washington lawmakers.
In January, Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes, and bettors on the site ultimately correctly predicted the winner in 26 out of 28 categories.
The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O’Brien, will air on Sunday, March 15, on ABC and Hulu.
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If bettors are correct, “Sinners” will take home four Oscars, while both “One Battle after Another” and “Frankenstein” are each set to win three.
Where the odds stand for each category, as of late January
Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another.”
Warner Bros.
Best Picture — “One Battle After Another”
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is the odds-on favorite to win best picture, standing at 67% among bettors on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
The next most likely winner is Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which each platform gives a roughly 24% chance.
Bettors have wagered more than $10 million on the Best Picture winner across the two platforms, the most of any category.
Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson
The director of “One Battle After Another” is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best director, with Kalshi and Polymarket pegging his chances of winning in the mid-to-high 80s.
Best Actor — Timothée Chalamet
Chalamet, the lead actor in “Marty Supreme,” is the favorite to win best actor. Both platforms put his odds in the mid-70s.
Best Actress — Jessie Buckley
According to bettors, Buckley — the lead actress in “Hamnet” — is overwhelmingly likely to win best actress, garnering 88-89% on both prediction markets.
Best Cinematography — “Sinners”
The supernatural horror film “Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best cinematography, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the movie a roughly 66% chance of winning.
Best Production Design — “Frankenstein”
At more than 80%, bettors on both prediction market platforms give “Frankenstein” an overwhelming chance of winning the award for best production design.
Best Adapted Screenplay — “One Battle After Another”
In addition to best picture, “One Battle After Another” is seen as overwhelmingly likely to win best adapted screenplay. The movie currently has a 90% chance of winning on both platforms.
Damson Idris as Joshua Pearce and Brad Pitt as Sonny Hayes in Apple Original Films’ “F1 The Movie.”
Apple
Best Sound — “F1”
Apple’s sports drama film F1 is the overwhelming favorite to win best sound, according to bettors.
Both platforms give the movie a better than 80% chance of winning.
Best Animated Short Film — “Butterfly”
Bettors are less certain who will win the award for best animated short film.
“Butterfly,” a 15-minute film by director Florence Miailhe, has a roughly 40% chance on both platforms.
But not far behind is “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” a 17-minute short film, which bettors give between a 26% and 30% chance of winning.
Best Live Action Short Film — “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
The French-language short film “Two People Exchanging Saliva” narrowly leads among bettors, garnering a 57% chance of winning on Kalshi and a 34% chance on Polymarket.
Another major contender is “Friend of Dorothy,” a British short comedy drama film that has a 28% chance on Kalshi and a 22% chance on Polymarket.
Additionally, the musical short comedy film “The Singers” has a 24% chance on Polymarket and a 14% chance on Kalshi.
Best Film Editing — “One Battle After Another”
The film leads the odds for best film editing winner, with a roughly 60% chance on both platforms.
“Sinners” is leading in multiple categories, according to prediction markets.
Eli Adé
Best Original Score — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best original score, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film a more than 85% chance of winning.
Best Original Song — “Golden”
“Golden,” the viral hit from the film “KPop Demon Hunters,” is the odds-on favorite to win best original song, with bettors on both platforms putting the odds of the track’s victory in the mid-to-high 80s.
Best Supporting Actor — Stellan Skarsgård
Stellan Skarsgård, who plays an estranged father in the Norwegian drama film “Sentimental Value,” is the favorite to win best supporting actor, sporting a roughly 64% chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Supporting Actress — Teyana Taylor
Taylor, who portrays Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another,” is the overwhelming favorite to win best supporting actress on both platforms, hovering around 75%.
James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” holds a commanding lead for the Best Visual Effects Oscar on prediction markets.
Disney/20th Century Studios
Best Visual Effects — “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Bettors believe that James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment in the “Avatar” series, is almost certain to win the award for best visual effects.
The movie’s chances of winning stand at more than 90% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Original Screenplay — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is the favorite to win best original screenplay, with more than 80% odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Documentary Short Film — “All the Empty Rooms”
Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket give “All the Empty Rooms” a roughly 55% chance of winning the award for best documentary short film.
The movie follows a journalist and photographer as they memorialize the empty bedrooms of school shooting victims.
Best Documentary Feature Film — “The Perfect Neighbor”
“The Perfect Neighbor,” a documentary about Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” laws, is the odds-on favorite to win best documentary feature film, with bettors on both platforms giving the film a roughly 68% chance.
Best International Feature Film — “Sentimental Value”
“Sentimental Value” is the favorite to win best international feature film, with bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film 67-70% odds of winning.
Oscar Isaac stars as Victor Frankenstein in Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein.”
Netflix
Best Costume Design — “Frankenstein”
“Frankenstein” is the overwhelming favorite to win best custom design, sporting roughly 85% odds on both platforms.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling — “Frankenstein”
Similarly, “Frankenstein” is seen as a lock for best makeup and hairstyling, sporting probabilities in the high 80s on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Animated Feature Film — “KPop Demon Hunters”
“KPop Demon Hunters” is the prohibitive favorite to win best animated feature film, with a roughly 90% chance on both prediction markets.
Best Casting — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is seen as most likely to win best casting, with Kalshi and Polymarket bettors giving the film a 65% chance of winning.
Prediction platform Kalshi is looking to retain its power users with a new VIP program.
Kalshi has started emailing high-volume traders about a new loyalty program called “Kalshi Platinum,” which gives them access to merchandise and referral incentives, a company spokesperson confirmed to Business Insider.
Other program perks include tickets to in-person Kalshi events and dinners, plus access to a “dedicated account manager” who can assist with customer support questions from 7 a.m. to 1 a.m.
“For the past couple of months, our team has been brainstorming ideas on how to best serve our most loyal customers,” one Kalshi Platinum email read. “After speaking with both customers and partners, we are excited to announce the launch of Kalshi Platinum to a select group of Kalshi users.”
Financial exchanges Coinbase and Kraken, as well as sportsbooks FanDuel and DraftKings, have also implemented VIP programs. These types of programs have become particularly important to sportsbooks, which compete fiercely with each other for VIPs.
“Similar to other financial markets, brokerages, and large consumer brands, we’re piloting a program that offers priority support and other benefits to some of our most loyal customers,” a Kalshi spokesperson said in a statement.
Kalshi and its top rival, Polymarket, have become popular by allowing users to make money by trading contracts about the outcomes of events like elections, world events, and sports games. Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi operates in all 50 states and is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, some state regulators have targeted prediction markets like Kalshi, arguing that parts of their businesses should be overseen by gaming authorities. Kalshi disputes that notion. The company has received cease-and-desist orders from several state agencies.
Kalshi has recently raised its profile through data integration deals with CNBC and CNN. These networks and their websites will display data from Kalshi that shows what its users think are the probabilities of different market and economic outcomes. For example, CNN could show Kalshi prediction data about which political party users think will control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections.
