I tried something different at my friends’ annual Oscars party this year: I outsourced my ballot to Anthropic’s Claude.
It beat around the bush at first, so I asked it to just give me the winners. Claude obliged, delivering confident picks across nearly every category. And it worked.
I won the pool and walked away with a box of chocolates and bragging rights.
Alistair Barr used Anthropic’s Claude to make Oscar picks
Alistair Barr/Business Insider
But here’s the twist: Claude didn’t even complete the assignment fully.
It failed to pick a winner for Casting, a new Oscar category this year. Maybe the model didn’t register the addition?
And in a couple of other award categories, Claude picked candidates who weren’t even on those shortlists. Check out the photo above to see where it went wrong.
Even so, my Claude-powered ballot still outperformed everyone else’s at the party.
That feels like a glimpse of the jagged edge of AI: systems that are clearly powerful, occasionally brittle, and still good enough to win.
Next year, I doubt I’ll be the only one showing up with an AI-generated ballot.
Sign up for BI’s Tech Memo newsletter here. Reach out to me via email at abarr@businessinsider.com.
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Kevin O’Leary is betting big on Timothée Chalamet.
O’Leary said on the red carpet that he bet $1,000 that his “Marty Supreme” costar will win an Oscar.
Chalamet is up against Michael B. Jordan for best actor.
Kevin O’Leary is confident his “Marty Supreme” costar Timothée Chalamet is walking away with the best actor Oscar.
The “Shark Tank” star is so confident, in fact, he put money on it.
O’Leary, who plays tycoon Milton Rockwell in “Marty Supreme,” told Variety on the Oscars red carpet that he bet $1,000 on the betting app Kalshi that Chalamet will win the prize.
“I know the voting stopped long before that controversy happened,” O’Leary told the magazine, referring to a comment Chalamet made during a conversation with Matthew McConaughey earlier this month where he talked down the ballet and opera.
“I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera where it’s like, ‘Hey, keep this thing alive, even though no one cares about this anymore,'” Chalamet said.
Chalamet has been the frontrunner for the best actor Oscar until recently, when “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordon won the best actor prize at SAG’s Actor Awards. And O’Leary is right — Oscar voting did indeed close before Chalamet’s mini-controversy. So whether Mr. Wonderful wins or loses $1,000, it won’t be related to a love or hatred for opera and ballet.
The 2026 Oscars are off to a predictable start at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, with Amy Madigan winning the statue for best supporting actress for “Weapons” and “KPop Demon Hunters” winning for best animated feature.
Here’s the full list of nominees with winners in bold.
Best actress in a supporting role
Amy Madigan in “Weapons.”
Warner Bros. Pictures
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Best animated feature film
“KPop Demon Hunters.”
Netflix
“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”
Best animated short film
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls.”
National Film Board of Canada
“Butterfly”
“Forevergreen”
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
“Retirement Plan”
“The Three Sisters”
Best costume design
Mia Goth as Elizabeth in “Frankenstein.”
Ken Woroner/Netflix
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sinners”
Best makeup and hairstyling
Jacob Elordi as The Creature in “Frankenstein.”
Ken Woroner/Netflix
“Frankenstein”
“The Ugly Stepsister”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine”
“Kokuho”
Best casting
“One Battle After Another.”
Warner Bros.
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sinners”
Best live-action short film
“The Singers” and “Two People Exchanging Saliva.”
Netflix / The New Yorker
“Butcher’s Stain”
“A Friend of Dorothy”
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
“The Singers” – TIE
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” – TIE
Best actor in a supporting role
Sean Penn in “One Battle After Another.”
Warner Bros.
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Best adapted screenplay
“One Battle After Another.”
Warner Bros.
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Train Dreams”
Best original screenplay
Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners.”
Warner Bros.
“Blue Moon”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
Best original score
“Sinners”
“One Battle After Another”
“Hamnet”
“Frankenstein”
“Bugonia”
Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in “Bugonia.”
Focus Features
Best cinematography
“Frankenstein”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Best documentary feature film
“The Alabama Solution”
“Come See Me in the Good Light”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
“The Perfect Neighbor”
Best documentary short film
“All the Empty Rooms”
“Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
“Children No More: Were and Are Gone”
“The Devil Is Busy”
“Perfectly a Strangeness”
Damson Idris and Brad Pitt in “F1.”
Apple
Best film editing
“F1”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
Best international feature film
“The Secret Agent”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirat”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Best original song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners”
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi”
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”
Best production design
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another.”
Warner Bros.
Best sound
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Sirat”
Best visual effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Jurassic World Rebirth”
“The Lost Bus”
“Sinners”
Best actress in a leading role
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Best actor in a leading role
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Miles Caton, Michael B. Jordan, and Ryan Coogler on the set of “Sinners.”
The 98th Academy Awards are coming up, and for prediction market bettors, tens of millions of dollars are on the line.
Since the nominees were announced on January 22, bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi have been wagering on which films, actors, directors, and more will claim the Oscar in each of the Academy’s 24 categories.
Prediction markets have experienced dramatic growth over the last year, drawing the attention of media companies, the ire of some state regulators, and the scrutiny of Washington lawmakers.
In January, Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes, and bettors on the site ultimately correctly predicted the winner in 26 out of 28 categories.
The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O’Brien, will air on Sunday, March 15, on ABC and Hulu.
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If bettors are correct, “Sinners” will take home four Oscars, while both “One Battle after Another” and “Frankenstein” are each set to win three.
Where the odds stand for each category, as of late January
Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another.”
Warner Bros.
Best Picture — “One Battle After Another”
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is the odds-on favorite to win best picture, standing at 67% among bettors on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
The next most likely winner is Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which each platform gives a roughly 24% chance.
Bettors have wagered more than $10 million on the Best Picture winner across the two platforms, the most of any category.
Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson
The director of “One Battle After Another” is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best director, with Kalshi and Polymarket pegging his chances of winning in the mid-to-high 80s.
Best Actor — Timothée Chalamet
Chalamet, the lead actor in “Marty Supreme,” is the favorite to win best actor. Both platforms put his odds in the mid-70s.
Best Actress — Jessie Buckley
According to bettors, Buckley — the lead actress in “Hamnet” — is overwhelmingly likely to win best actress, garnering 88-89% on both prediction markets.
Best Cinematography — “Sinners”
The supernatural horror film “Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best cinematography, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the movie a roughly 66% chance of winning.
Best Production Design — “Frankenstein”
At more than 80%, bettors on both prediction market platforms give “Frankenstein” an overwhelming chance of winning the award for best production design.
Best Adapted Screenplay — “One Battle After Another”
In addition to best picture, “One Battle After Another” is seen as overwhelmingly likely to win best adapted screenplay. The movie currently has a 90% chance of winning on both platforms.
Damson Idris as Joshua Pearce and Brad Pitt as Sonny Hayes in Apple Original Films’ “F1 The Movie.”
Apple
Best Sound — “F1”
Apple’s sports drama film F1 is the overwhelming favorite to win best sound, according to bettors.
Both platforms give the movie a better than 80% chance of winning.
Best Animated Short Film — “Butterfly”
Bettors are less certain who will win the award for best animated short film.
“Butterfly,” a 15-minute film by director Florence Miailhe, has a roughly 40% chance on both platforms.
But not far behind is “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” a 17-minute short film, which bettors give between a 26% and 30% chance of winning.
Best Live Action Short Film — “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
The French-language short film “Two People Exchanging Saliva” narrowly leads among bettors, garnering a 57% chance of winning on Kalshi and a 34% chance on Polymarket.
Another major contender is “Friend of Dorothy,” a British short comedy drama film that has a 28% chance on Kalshi and a 22% chance on Polymarket.
Additionally, the musical short comedy film “The Singers” has a 24% chance on Polymarket and a 14% chance on Kalshi.
Best Film Editing — “One Battle After Another”
The film leads the odds for best film editing winner, with a roughly 60% chance on both platforms.
“Sinners” is leading in multiple categories, according to prediction markets.
Eli Adé
Best Original Score — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best original score, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film a more than 85% chance of winning.
Best Original Song — “Golden”
“Golden,” the viral hit from the film “KPop Demon Hunters,” is the odds-on favorite to win best original song, with bettors on both platforms putting the odds of the track’s victory in the mid-to-high 80s.
Best Supporting Actor — Stellan Skarsgård
Stellan Skarsgård, who plays an estranged father in the Norwegian drama film “Sentimental Value,” is the favorite to win best supporting actor, sporting a roughly 64% chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Supporting Actress — Teyana Taylor
Taylor, who portrays Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another,” is the overwhelming favorite to win best supporting actress on both platforms, hovering around 75%.
James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” holds a commanding lead for the Best Visual Effects Oscar on prediction markets.
Disney/20th Century Studios
Best Visual Effects — “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Bettors believe that James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment in the “Avatar” series, is almost certain to win the award for best visual effects.
The movie’s chances of winning stand at more than 90% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Original Screenplay — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is the favorite to win best original screenplay, with more than 80% odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Documentary Short Film — “All the Empty Rooms”
Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket give “All the Empty Rooms” a roughly 55% chance of winning the award for best documentary short film.
The movie follows a journalist and photographer as they memorialize the empty bedrooms of school shooting victims.
Best Documentary Feature Film — “The Perfect Neighbor”
“The Perfect Neighbor,” a documentary about Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” laws, is the odds-on favorite to win best documentary feature film, with bettors on both platforms giving the film a roughly 68% chance.
Best International Feature Film — “Sentimental Value”
“Sentimental Value” is the favorite to win best international feature film, with bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film 67-70% odds of winning.
Oscar Isaac stars as Victor Frankenstein in Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein.”
Netflix
Best Costume Design — “Frankenstein”
“Frankenstein” is the overwhelming favorite to win best custom design, sporting roughly 85% odds on both platforms.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling — “Frankenstein”
Similarly, “Frankenstein” is seen as a lock for best makeup and hairstyling, sporting probabilities in the high 80s on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Animated Feature Film — “KPop Demon Hunters”
“KPop Demon Hunters” is the prohibitive favorite to win best animated feature film, with a roughly 90% chance on both prediction markets.
Best Casting — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is seen as most likely to win best casting, with Kalshi and Polymarket bettors giving the film a 65% chance of winning.
