NATO member Latvia’s national security analysts have released a report estimating that Russia has spent an additional $130 billion trying to buy Western goods while being sanctioned.
Published last week by the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), the government analysis said the estimate was based on spending from 2022 to 2025, translating to an annual $32.5 billion loss.
That estimated figure is just for imports of Western goods. The international sanctions, imposed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, also mean the country has lost hundreds of billions from its export markets and assets frozen by Western banks.
The Latvian analysts said their report accounted only for the additional cost of goods eventually bought from alternative sources, and excluded cases where Russia couldn’t find substitutes.
They added that intelligence showed that Russian institutions are internally forecasting further losses, “despite Russia’s public announcements claiming its economy is successfully adapting to the impact of the Western sanctions.”
Latvia, one of the Baltic States, sits on Russia’s Western flank and has been one of the most outspoken NATO members against the Kremlin, accusing it of running disinformation campaigns and covert operations to destabilize local politics.
Its analysts wrote, without providing details about their sources, that one Russian forecast warned foreign trade would lose another $136 billion by 2030 solely due to Western sanctions.
Another forecast said a continued loss of trade with Europe would account for about $70 billion of these losses, the analysts added.
“SAB assesses these estimates to be an undercount — the losses are likely much higher,” the report said.
The internal estimates don’t account for the “entire economic spectrum,” it said, such as reduced tax revenues or inflated consumer prices.
A separate internal Russian forecast put its energy sector losses at $216.5 billion over the next five years if “Western pressure increases,” the Latvian report added. The oil and gas industries typically account for about 15-20% of Russia’s GDP and nearly a third of federal revenues.
The report added that Russia has been struggling to find alternative markets for its exports in some major sectors. For example, Russian iron ore exports had been reduced by 40% from 2021 to 2025, and timber and cellulose exports dropped about 50%, the analysts wrote.
“SAB assesses that the lifting of sanctions will significantly increase the threat posed by Russia not only to Ukraine and Europe, but also globally,” the analysts wrote, saying that the Kremlin could be freed up to assist Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin admonished his top economic officials on Wednesday in a rare public rebuke, saying that the national economy had contracted by 1.8% in January and February.
“This is not only below experts and analysts’ expectations, but also below the Government’s own forecasts and those of the Central Bank,” Putin said, according to the Kremlin’s public transcript.
Kyiv officials warned that Ukrainians might be coerced into registering Starlink terminals for the Kremlin’s forces after a recent block on Russia’s access to the service.
Ukraine’s auxiliary body for handling prisoners of war posted a notice on Tuesday saying that it had learned of multiple instances where families of Ukrainian prisoners were threatened and told to enroll such terminals.
The warning comes after Ukraine’s defense ministry reached a deal with SpaceX earlier this month to cut off Russia’s access to Starlink by blocking general connectivity across Ukrainian territory.
“Looking for a way out of the difficult situation in which they found themselves, the occupiers turned their attention to the families of the prisoners,” the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War wrote in a statement.
“Cases of threats and demands to officially register Starlink terminals have been recorded,” it added.
To maintain Starlink access, Ukrainian troops, civilians, and businesses must register individual terminals to a “whitelist,” either online or at municipal centers.
The sweeping move aimed to curb a black-market loophole that Russian forces were exploiting. In compliance with US sanctions, SpaceX doesn’t do business with Russia, but Ukraine has repeatedly said that Russian troops were obtaining terminals and using them to guide attack and reconnaissance drones.
In its latest statement, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said that officials could trace the registration of terminals that were later used by Russian forces because enrollment requires an ID.
“If the terminal is used to control drones that destroy infrastructure and take lives, the fact of registering the terminal by a citizen of Ukraine is grounds for criminal prosecution,” the agency added.
Russia is not known to have a satellite internet service that compares to Starlink’s in terms of speed, availability, and stability.
“For the enemy, Starlink is so important that they have deployed a whole network to search for traitors who are ready to register Starlink for themselves in the Central Administrative Service,” wrote Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, a drone analyst and an advisor to Ukraine’s defense ministry, in a Telegram statement on Sunday.
In some cases, Russian troops were offering up to $230 to register a single terminal, Beskrestnov added. That’s roughly a third of the median monthly salary in Ukraine.
For the Kremlin’s forces, the service disruption has been significant enough that pro-Russian military bloggers have reported that most Russian units now lack internet access. Some have blamed Moscow for what they called a reliance on Western technology, even as the US and Europe explicitly back Ukraine.
“It’s about to suddenly become clear that units cannot operate effectively without communications. That’ll be news to some in high places,” one blogger, under the handle Belarusian Silovik, wrote.
Denying Russian access to Starlink had long been a priority for Ukraine’s new defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, who had previously advocated such measures while serving as minister for digital transformation.
Russia said the United States is pushing Russian companies out of Venezuela’s energy sector.
“Right now, following Venezuela and what is happening there, our companies are quite openly being pushed out of Venezuela,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with RT, a state-linked media network.
The US launched a military operation in early January that resulted in the capture of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
In the interview published on Thursday, Lavrov linked the US’s pressure on Russian companies to broader efforts to curb Moscow’s role in global oil markets.
Lavrov cited recent sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as tariffs and restrictions on countries purchasing Russian oil, including India.
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“Everywhere it is being said that Russian oil and Russian gas will be replaced by American oil and American liquefied natural gas,” Lavrov said.
Russia’s investments in Venezuela at risk
Russia now faces the prospect of significant financial losses in Venezuela following the US operation, which has upended decades of strategic cooperation between Moscow and Caracas spanning energy, defense, and diplomacy.
Energy ties played a central role, reflecting the importance of the oil sector to Russia’s economy.
A former US ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union warned last month that Russia’s exposure in Venezuela could translate into concrete losses.
“Russian investments in Venezuela’s oil industry over the last twenty years will now have to be, formally or informally, written off,” wrote Stephen Sestanovich, the George F. Kennan senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Loans for Venezuela’s purchase of Russian weapons could meet the same fate, while trade between the two countries could also come to a halt, Sestanovich added.
That would come at a sensitive moment for Russia’s economy.
As the war in Ukraine approaches its fifth year, sweeping Western sanctions and lower oil prices are weighing on budget revenues that fund President Vladimir Putin’s war chest. In January, Russia’s oil revenue plunged to its lowest level in over five years.
At least one Russian state-owned oil company has moved to ringfence its exposure. Last month, Roszarubezhneft said that all of its Venezuelan assets are owned by the Russian state.
A new wave of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has put two of its biggest regions to the test, as local cities rolled out plans for dealing with their worst blackouts in years.
Their prepared “blackout mode” response provides some insight into how urban centers might steel themselves for energy crises in wartime, especially during cold months. Ukraine’s winter can turn brutal in January and February, when temperatures typically drop to 18°F.
Mass blackouts can also disrupt water and sewage systems, hospitals, public transportation, and road control, including traffic lights.
Ukrainians in Dnipro must collect water at public access points during power outages.
Roman Mykhalchuk/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC “UA:PBC”/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
Both Ukrainian troops and civilians have long learned to cope with frequent energy shortages in the winter, maintaining backup generators, battery-powered lamps, and stockpiles of coal or gas.
But Moscow’s latest attacks on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, two eastern Ukrainian regions, plunged both areas into almost total darkness this week.
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Regional leaders have described it as their biggest energy crisis since 2022, when Ukrainians first faced wartime power outages. Borys Filatov, the mayor of Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk’s largest city, said the situation there was one of the most severe in the country and had risen to the level of a “national emergency.”
“This is the first total blackout in the entire region in recent years,” Ivan Fedorov, Zaporizhzhia’s governor, said in a statement on Thursday.
As national authorities reported that over 1 million people had lost heat and water, local officials rushed to restore power and open access to facilities prearranged for the blackouts.
One of their prepared responses was to deploy “invincibility points,” or earmarked emergency shelters equipped with heat, communication, and basic necessities.
Some local governments publish a map with available locations for civilians. The city of Dnipro, for example, maintains a list of mostly schools, municipality buildings, and metro stations designated as safe spots.
Civilians are meant to visit these shelters to “warm up, charge your gadgets, and wait out the power outage,” per the municipal government.
A key feature of invincibility points, such as this one in Odesa, is the ability to charge your phone.
Yan Dobronosov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
A video published by Oleksy Kuleba, Ukraine’s vice prime minister for reconstruction and the minister for community and territorial development, showed one point in Dnipropetrovsk that appears to be located in a small convenience store.
Kuleba said the region’s energy sector had been hit with a “massive blow,” and that over 5,000 people visited 500 such locations in the city of Dnipro within 24 hours after the power outages began.
Kuleba added that neighboring regions in Ukraine had donated 45 generators to Dnipropetrovsk, where some of its trains had switched to burning onboard fuel for power.
Zaporizhzhia’s governor, Fedorov, also said on Thursday that the region had 400 established invincibility points, with 200 ready for visitors within two hours.
“Residents could warm up, call their relatives, drink hot tea, and, if necessary, stay overnight,” he said.
Filatov, Dnipro’s mayor, said on Thursday that the city had set up 130 water dispensers, which his staff marked on Google Maps, and that disrupted public transport would be temporarily replaced by buses.
Dnipro residents queue up for a bus, which local authorities said would replace critical public transport disrupted by the blackout.
Roman Mykhalchuk/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC “UA:PBC”/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
Hospitals were already equipped with alternative power sources and necessities, while parts of the city, on the western bank of the Dnipro River, were supported by backup power, he added.
“The city’s sewage system is also powered,” Filatov said.
Notably, Filatov said that while authorities had extended local school holidays to January 11, kindergartens would operate on four-hour shifts “because it’s clear that parents are also in a difficult situation.”
In Zaporizhzhia, Fedorov said the region had been left “completely without electricity” on Wednesday evening.
“We immediately went into ‘blackout’ mode and started working according to a clear plan,” he said.
Zaporizhzhia’s hospitals similarly switched to backup power within minutes, and the region’s traffic lights “worked autonomously,” he added.
Restoring power as the shelling continues
Ukrainian officials have since said that power has been partially returned to both regions, with Kuleba reporting on late Thursday evening that water and heating in Dnipropetrovsk had been restored to over 1.7 million people and 270,000 people, respectively.
Energy supplier DTEK said that around 700,000 families in the Dnipropetrovsk region once again had access to electricity, though it added that Russian bombing was continuing.
“An exhausting day for energy workers in the Dnipropetrovsk region,” the company said.
Fedorov warned repeatedly on Thursday evening of incoming drone and guided missile strikes over Zaporizhzhia. He later said that Russia had carried out over 728 strikes, including drone attacks, artillery shelling, and multiple-launch rocket system strikes across Ukraine that day.
Both Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk are close to the southern and eastern front lines in Ukraine.
Kyiv has often accused Russia of specifically targeting energy infrastructure during the winter to exhaust and punish Ukrainian civilians, which is a war crime but is often difficult to prove.
The Kremlin has often responded that its strikes were intended for legitimate military targets, though the years have shown that critical facilities are regularly damaged or destroyed by the attacks.
“There is no military sense in such strikes on the energy sector, on infrastructure, which leave people without electricity and heating in winter conditions,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday.
