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US-Iran ceasefire brings little relief as Hormuz shipping barely moves

by with No Comment Xpandfy

The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has yet to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints largely stalled.

Traffic remains thin and tightly controlled, with vessels still required to coordinate with Iranian forces to pass, according to an April 8 report from maritime intelligence firm Windward.

“Transit conditions, toll arrangements, and the legal framework for passage remain undefined. The strait has not reopened — it is in a supervised pause,” the firm wrote.

On Tuesday — the day before the ceasefire was announced — just 11 vessels transited the strait, according to Windward, far below the more than 100 ships that typically passed through daily before the war.

Wednesday’s activity showed little change. Five bulk carriers tracked outbound as of midday, all apparently confined to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-controlled corridor.

“Coordination with Iranian armed forces is still required for all transits,” Windward wrote.

“Iran has confirmed this operates ‘within technical limitations’ without specifying what those are but all signs are that the Islamic Republic is seeking to retain its leverage over the waterway during ceasefire negotiations,” the firm added.

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Limited return of shipping activity

Shipping behavior reflects that uncertainty.

Movements are dominated by smaller, risk-tolerant operators, while mainstream oil majors and large global shipping firms remain absent. Insurance constraints — particularly around war-risk coverage — continue to block a broader return.

Around 3,200 vessels carrying roughly 20,000 seafarers remain west of Hormuz as operators assess the risks, per Windward.

Windward said it could take weeks to move stranded oil and gas cargoes and months for global trade to reach pre-crisis levels, even in a best-case scenario.

“My sense is that it’s unlikely ships will move quickly — much as there is a lot of pent-up demand to get these cargoes moving, risks will need to be managed carefully given the lives and costs in play,” said Ellen Fraser, an energy analyst and partner at Baringa, a global consultancy.

Fraser said she expects oil prices to remain high in the meantime.

Crude futures rose early Thursday after a sharp sell-off on ceasefire news, but they remain well above pre-war levels of around $70 a barrel.

Brent crude oil futures were trading 2.5% higher around $97 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 3% to around $97.53 per barrel.




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A map of the Middle East, showing the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, with Iran highlighted and markers on Dubai and Tehran.

Tons of goods are stuck around the Middle East amid shipping and air chaos

by with No Comment Xpandfy

Global supply chains are on edge after the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on Saturday, triggering widespread disruption across one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

The fallout is hitting more than oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Container ships loaded with consumer goods, auto parts, electronics, and food are being rerouted or delayed, while air cargo networks are fracturing under sudden airspace closures.

“Ocean container services in the Persian Gulf have continued unaffected by the recent build-up of military forces in the region, but the escalation in conflict through military strikes means ships will now avoid the area, but for as short a time as possible,” said Peter Sand, the chief analyst at freight-rate analytics platform Xeneta.

On Sunday, MSC — the world’s largest container shipping line by capacity — said it had suspended all bookings for cargo to the Middle East until further notice.

Danish shipping giant Maersk paused Red Sea and Suez Canal sailings amid fears the Iran escalation could spill over into key shipping lanes. The company is rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.

French shipping giant CMA CGM announced Monday it will impose an “Emergency Conflict Surcharge” effective Monday, citing rising security risks. The surcharge will add between $2,000 and $4,000 per container on shipments to and from Gulf and Red Sea countries.

On Saturday, CMA CGM ordered vessels inside or bound for the Gulf to “proceed to shelter.” It also suspended sailings through the Suez Canal and rerouted ships to the Cape of Good Hope.

German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd introduced a $1,500 per standard container war risk surcharge and suspended vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sailing around Africa, rather than through the Suez Canal, absorbs roughly 2.5 million 20-foot container units’ worth of global container capacity, according to Xeneta’s Sand.

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Air cargo rates may rise

Air freight is also under strain.

Several Middle Eastern airspaces have been closed or restricted, disrupting passenger and cargo flights.

Parcel delivery giant FedEx suspended flights to and from markets including Bahrain, Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, and halted pickup and delivery services in several Gulf countries.

Qatar Airways Cargo temporarily suspended operations due to the closure of Qatari airspace.

DSV, a Danish logistics company, said in an advisory that airspace restrictions are forcing carriers to suspend services or divert flights and lengthen routings.

With less cargo space available on key Asia-Europe and Middle East routes, air freight rates are likely to rise, space will tighten, and airlines may make short-notice schedule and pricing changes, according to DSV.

Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, wrote on X that conflict in the Middle East has removed 18% of global air freight capacity from the market.

If carriers begin omitting Gulf port calls, containers may be discharged at alternative hubs and trucked onward, wrote Xeneta’s Sand.

The broader concern, however, is what the escalation means for global trade flows through the Red Sea this year. The conflict comes after more than two years of disruption caused by Iran-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.

“The repercussions of the joint military operation by the US and Israel against Iran and subsequent retaliatory action will see the further weaponization of trade and shatter hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,” wrote Sand.




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