Posts tagged: threats

Ukrainian soldiers operating US-made Patriot air defense systems are deviating from traditional engagement practices and firing fewer interceptors in battles against incoming Russian missiles.

The commander of a Ukrainian Patriot unit said that standard air defense doctrine calls for firing between two and four interceptors at each incoming Russian cruise or ballistic missile; however, his forces are launching just one per threat amid strained stockpiles.

The commander, identified as Oleksandr in a video released over the weekend by the Ukrainian military’s Air Command West, said that Kyiv’s forces are trying to use as few interceptors as possible. He said that they need more to effectively counter Russian attacks. It’s unclear how widely this single-shot approach is practiced among the Ukrainian Patriot crews.

Launching more than one interceptor in an engagement, though costly, isn’t necessarily wasteful; rather, it is intentional risk management, prioritizing the kill over conservation. But Ukraine doesn’t have that luxury. In a high-intensity fight, the US and its allies might not either.

Yehor Cherniev, the deputy chairman of the Ukrainian parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence, said Ukraine has faced low Patriot interceptor stockpiles, forcing it to use as few as possible to engage Russian missiles.

To conserve essential interceptors, Ukraine had to learn to make the most of its capabilities, Cherniev told Business Insider. “This is the operation of the Patriot system in manual mode, without relying on automation.”

The American-made MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile battery is the most advanced air defense system that Ukraine possesses. NATO countries have supplied Kyiv with PAC-2 and newer PAC-3 interceptors, the latter of which is estimated to cost nearly $4 million apiece.

Russian cruise and ballistic missiles that make it past the Patriots and other air defense systems have struck civil infrastructure or residential areas to deadly effect. Kyiv has repeatedly lobbied NATO states for more interceptors to replenish depleted stockpiles. The weapons are in high demand globally, though.

Some Russian bombardments include hundreds of missiles and drones, posing challenges for Ukraine’s stretched air defenders and underscoring the need for more advanced interceptors.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s defense minister, said on Tuesday that Germany will provide Kyiv with funding for “several hundred” Patriot interceptors as part of a new 4 billion Euro ($4.7 billion) arms package.

During the Iran war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv would be willing to send intercerptor drones to Middle Eastern states in exchange for their vaunted Patriot interceptors.

The US Army, the primary operator of the Patriot system, is learning from Ukraine’s experience that it is crucial to keep the batteries hidden and mobile and sufficiently stockpile interceptors, American officials told Business Insider previously.

Though Ukraine’s situation isn’t ideal, its ability to use fewer interceptors against Russian missiles could be another lesson for the US and its NATO allies concerned about their own interceptor stockpiles in the event of a major war against a near-peer adversary.

Cherniev said that NATO states don’t need to break protocol at this point since they have sufficient stockpiles and aren’t routinely attacked by massive bombardments of ballistic missiles; however, he said, this could change in the event of a large-scale war.

In the Middle East, the US and allied forces have intercepted thousands of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones over five weeks of sustained fighting. The pace and intensity of those engagements have fueled concerns about whether interceptor stockpiles can hold up in a prolonged or future conflict.

Cherniev said NATO forces may eventually be forced to start saving interceptors. “It’s better if they learn how to do this in advance from Ukrainian officers and make changes to their protocols now.”