This story is available exclusively to Business Insider
subscribers. Become an Insider
and start reading now. Have an account? .
Kevin O’Leary is betting big on Timothée Chalamet.
O’Leary said on the red carpet that he bet $1,000 that his “Marty Supreme” costar will win an Oscar.
Chalamet is up against Michael B. Jordan for best actor.
Kevin O’Leary is confident his “Marty Supreme” costar Timothée Chalamet is walking away with the best actor Oscar.
The “Shark Tank” star is so confident, in fact, he put money on it.
O’Leary, who plays tycoon Milton Rockwell in “Marty Supreme,” told Variety on the Oscars red carpet that he bet $1,000 on the betting app Kalshi that Chalamet will win the prize.
“I know the voting stopped long before that controversy happened,” O’Leary told the magazine, referring to a comment Chalamet made during a conversation with Matthew McConaughey earlier this month where he talked down the ballet and opera.
“I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera where it’s like, ‘Hey, keep this thing alive, even though no one cares about this anymore,'” Chalamet said.
Chalamet has been the frontrunner for the best actor Oscar until recently, when “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordon won the best actor prize at SAG’s Actor Awards. And O’Leary is right — Oscar voting did indeed close before Chalamet’s mini-controversy. So whether Mr. Wonderful wins or loses $1,000, it won’t be related to a love or hatred for opera and ballet.
The 98th Academy Awards are coming up, and for prediction market bettors, tens of millions of dollars are on the line.
Since the nominees were announced on January 22, bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi have been wagering on which films, actors, directors, and more will claim the Oscar in each of the Academy’s 24 categories.
Prediction markets have experienced dramatic growth over the last year, drawing the attention of media companies, the ire of some state regulators, and the scrutiny of Washington lawmakers.
In January, Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes, and bettors on the site ultimately correctly predicted the winner in 26 out of 28 categories.
The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O’Brien, will air on Sunday, March 15, on ABC and Hulu.
Every time Bryan publishes a story, you’ll get an alert straight to your inbox!
Stay connected to Bryan and get more of their work as it publishes.
If bettors are correct, “Sinners” will take home four Oscars, while both “One Battle after Another” and “Frankenstein” are each set to win three.
Where the odds stand for each category, as of late January
Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another.”
Warner Bros.
Best Picture — “One Battle After Another”
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is the odds-on favorite to win best picture, standing at 67% among bettors on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
The next most likely winner is Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which each platform gives a roughly 24% chance.
Bettors have wagered more than $10 million on the Best Picture winner across the two platforms, the most of any category.
Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson
The director of “One Battle After Another” is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best director, with Kalshi and Polymarket pegging his chances of winning in the mid-to-high 80s.
Best Actor — Timothée Chalamet
Chalamet, the lead actor in “Marty Supreme,” is the favorite to win best actor. Both platforms put his odds in the mid-70s.
Best Actress — Jessie Buckley
According to bettors, Buckley — the lead actress in “Hamnet” — is overwhelmingly likely to win best actress, garnering 88-89% on both prediction markets.
Best Cinematography — “Sinners”
The supernatural horror film “Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best cinematography, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the movie a roughly 66% chance of winning.
Best Production Design — “Frankenstein”
At more than 80%, bettors on both prediction market platforms give “Frankenstein” an overwhelming chance of winning the award for best production design.
Best Adapted Screenplay — “One Battle After Another”
In addition to best picture, “One Battle After Another” is seen as overwhelmingly likely to win best adapted screenplay. The movie currently has a 90% chance of winning on both platforms.
Damson Idris as Joshua Pearce and Brad Pitt as Sonny Hayes in Apple Original Films’ “F1 The Movie.”
Apple
Best Sound — “F1”
Apple’s sports drama film F1 is the overwhelming favorite to win best sound, according to bettors.
Both platforms give the movie a better than 80% chance of winning.
Best Animated Short Film — “Butterfly”
Bettors are less certain who will win the award for best animated short film.
“Butterfly,” a 15-minute film by director Florence Miailhe, has a roughly 40% chance on both platforms.
But not far behind is “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” a 17-minute short film, which bettors give between a 26% and 30% chance of winning.
Best Live Action Short Film — “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
The French-language short film “Two People Exchanging Saliva” narrowly leads among bettors, garnering a 57% chance of winning on Kalshi and a 34% chance on Polymarket.
Another major contender is “Friend of Dorothy,” a British short comedy drama film that has a 28% chance on Kalshi and a 22% chance on Polymarket.
Additionally, the musical short comedy film “The Singers” has a 24% chance on Polymarket and a 14% chance on Kalshi.
Best Film Editing — “One Battle After Another”
The film leads the odds for best film editing winner, with a roughly 60% chance on both platforms.
“Sinners” is leading in multiple categories, according to prediction markets.
Eli Adé
Best Original Score — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best original score, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film a more than 85% chance of winning.
Best Original Song — “Golden”
“Golden,” the viral hit from the film “KPop Demon Hunters,” is the odds-on favorite to win best original song, with bettors on both platforms putting the odds of the track’s victory in the mid-to-high 80s.
Best Supporting Actor — Stellan Skarsgård
Stellan Skarsgård, who plays an estranged father in the Norwegian drama film “Sentimental Value,” is the favorite to win best supporting actor, sporting a roughly 64% chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Supporting Actress — Teyana Taylor
Taylor, who portrays Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another,” is the overwhelming favorite to win best supporting actress on both platforms, hovering around 75%.
James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” holds a commanding lead for the Best Visual Effects Oscar on prediction markets.
Disney/20th Century Studios
Best Visual Effects — “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Bettors believe that James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment in the “Avatar” series, is almost certain to win the award for best visual effects.
The movie’s chances of winning stand at more than 90% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Original Screenplay — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is the favorite to win best original screenplay, with more than 80% odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Documentary Short Film — “All the Empty Rooms”
Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket give “All the Empty Rooms” a roughly 55% chance of winning the award for best documentary short film.
The movie follows a journalist and photographer as they memorialize the empty bedrooms of school shooting victims.
Best Documentary Feature Film — “The Perfect Neighbor”
“The Perfect Neighbor,” a documentary about Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” laws, is the odds-on favorite to win best documentary feature film, with bettors on both platforms giving the film a roughly 68% chance.
Best International Feature Film — “Sentimental Value”
“Sentimental Value” is the favorite to win best international feature film, with bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film 67-70% odds of winning.
Oscar Isaac stars as Victor Frankenstein in Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein.”
Netflix
Best Costume Design — “Frankenstein”
“Frankenstein” is the overwhelming favorite to win best custom design, sporting roughly 85% odds on both platforms.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling — “Frankenstein”
Similarly, “Frankenstein” is seen as a lock for best makeup and hairstyling, sporting probabilities in the high 80s on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best Animated Feature Film — “KPop Demon Hunters”
“KPop Demon Hunters” is the prohibitive favorite to win best animated feature film, with a roughly 90% chance on both prediction markets.
Best Casting — “Sinners”
“Sinners” is seen as most likely to win best casting, with Kalshi and Polymarket bettors giving the film a 65% chance of winning.
The awards show ballot was once an innocent watch-party game.
Now, millions of dollars are at stake.
Fans planning to watch the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are plowing money into prediction markets, hoping for a windfall if they correctly choose a winner.
Millions have so far been bet on Golden Globe winners on Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms. This year, Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes, which airs on CBS and Paramount+ on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET.
“The collaboration will bring real-time, market-driven insights across the Golden Globes live events and a broad digital and editorial ecosystem touching fans’ greatest passion points across entertainment, fashion and pop culture,” a joint press release said.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, allow users to buy and sell shares on the outcomes of future events, including sports games or presidential elections, potentially resulting in a payday. Polymarket also provides real-time updates, meaning the data can provide insights into how consumers and investors think.
The relatively new markets are not strictly regulated, leaving room for those with insider knowledge to game the system. A last-minute bet on Polymarket last week that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be ousted netted strong returns after the US captured Maduro in a surprise raid hours later. A new bill proposed last week in response would prohibit government officials from insider trading on prediction markets.
For the Globes, fans have already bet nearly $2.5 millionin contracts across 30 awards show categories on Polymarket, including Best Director and Best Motion Picture, as of Sunday afternoon.
So, who do betters think will win?
Predicted Winners on Polymarket
Best Director
On Polymarket, betters think Paul Thomas Anderson, whose film “One Battle After Another” also snagged Golden Globe noms, has a 94% chance of winning Best Director. Ryan Coogler, director of “Sinners,” is behind Anderson at 3%.
Best Actor — Drama winner
Betters gave Wagner Moura, who starred in “The Secret Agent,” a 73% chance of winning Best Actor in a motion picture drama. Michael B. Jordan of “Sinners” had a 24% chance.
Best Actor — Musical or Comedy winner
Timothee Chalamet, star of “Marty Supreme,” led with a 70% chance to win Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy motion picture on Sunday afternoon. Leonardo DiCaprio followed Chalamet at 17% for his work in “One Battle After Another.”
Best Actress — Drama winner
“Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley had a 96% of winning Best Actress in a drama motion picture. Behind Buckley, betters gave Renate Reinsve of “Sentimental Value” a 3% chance of winning.
Best Actress — Musical or Comedy winner
Polymarket betters think Rose Byrne has a 76% chance of winning a Golden Globe Award for her role in the film, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” Emma Stone, star of “Bugonia,” came in second at 12%.
Best Motion Picture — Animated winner
On Polymarket, users gave Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” a 92% chance of winning the top animation prize. “Acro,” written and directed by Ugo Bienvenu, followed at a 5% chance.
Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy winner
Betters on Polymarket threw their money behind “One Battle After Another” to win this category at 97%, beating “Marty Supreme,” which had a 2% chance.
Best Motion Picture — Drama winner
“Sinners” had the highest chance to win Best Motion Picture in the drama category on Polymarket at 55%. “Hamnet” came behind that at a 31% chance.
The battle to become the top micro-drama app in the US is heating up.
DramaBox, one of the leading producers of the short-video format filled with soapy tropes, has been seeking fresh funding from US backers, according to two people with direct knowledge of its efforts.
One said DramaBox’s fundraising goal was $100 million with a $500 million valuation.
DramaBox is part of Singapore-based StoryMatrix, and is behind titles like “A Deal with the Hockey Captain” and “The Lost Heir: A Christmas Reckoning” that it monetizes through one-off payments, subscriptions (usually $20 a week), and ads.
DramaBox did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Every time Lucia publishes a story, you’ll get an alert straight to your inbox!
Stay connected to Lucia and get more of their work as it publishes.
Executives at DramaBox told Business Insider in September that the company was profitable and that their ambition was to become the most popular micro-drama platform for Americans. They aimed to do so by working with Hollywood filmmakers and diversifying into new storytelling styles and genres, such as series for families and choose-your-own-adventure-style dramas.
Industry reports regularly list DramaBox as one of the top two micro-drama apps, alongside fellow Asian import ReelShort. Analytics firm Sensor Tower estimated that DramaBox generated $120 million in global in-app revenue in the first quarter of 2025, just behind ReelShort’s $130 million. DramaBox countered in the September interview that its numbers were higher, without sharing specifics.
The streaming consulting firm Owl & Co. estimated that the format had generated $1.3 billion in the US in 2025, mostly from direct payments from viewers.
DramaBox already has a connection to Hollywood’s most blue-chip company, Disney, which has invested in DramaBox through its selective accelerator program. Disney said in late 2025 that it was in talks with DramaBox to adapt young adult fantasy novels into original micro dramas and was exploring adapting music albums into vertical short videos.
Investors have been placing bets elsewhere in the space as well:
This past fall, Bill Block, the former CEO of Miramax, raised $14 million from investors including Alexis Ohanian, Kris Jenner, and Kim Kardashian, among others, to launch GammaTime. He called it the first “premium micro drama streaming platform.”
Fox invested in Holywater, a Ukrainian company behind the micro drama app My Drama.
LA-based Bitz Films, which says it’s focused on creating elevated micro dramas in genres like comedy and horror, has raised $1.2 million in pre-seed funding.
Big Tech has also dived in.
Meta’s Instagram is testing the micro drama format in India with a series. TikTok, which is already widely used by short dramas for marketing, added a section called TikTok Minis where you can binge on bite-sized series without leaving the app.
Despite the format’s burgeoning popularity, there are those who question its long-term viability. Some investors told Business Insider they had held back from the space because of concerns that the format wouldn’t succeed in areas beyond its core of female-targeted romances.
EQT is one of the largest private equity investors in the world — yet most wealthy Americans have barely heard of it. That’s the uphill battle facing Peter Aliprantis, the Swedish firm’s head of private wealth in the Americas, as EQT tries to pitch in a market dominated by Wall Street brands with plenty of CNBC airtime.
“Most people in the United States are not familiar with us, and the way we say it, we’re the best-kept secret,” Aliprantis told Business Insider.
Private Equity International ranked the firm as the second-largest private equity firm, with $312 billion of assets under management. It raised more than $113 billion in third-party private equity capital from 2020 to the end of 2024, putting it ahead of Blackstone, and just behind KKR so far this decade.
Like many of its competitors, it’s turning to private wealth as the newest source of growth. The industry’s change of fundraising focus comes as private equity firms are slow to return cash to investors, and over-allocation among institutional investors means that institutional funding is slowing.
But the same reasons that the firm isn’t as well-known in America are actually an advantage, Aliprantis said.
In a world where debt-heavy buyouts are proving more difficult and an increasingly concentrated American private market is pushing some to invest internationally, a global industrialist approach can be attractive.
EQT has returned capital at a normal pace, with $23 billion in distributions for the year ending June 2025. The firm has also been building a private wealth business for the past four years, which accounts for 10% of its current assets. The firm has a goal to reach between 15-20% during its current $100 billion fundraising cycle, according to its second-quarter report.
Aliprantis walked Business Insider through the firm’s pitch to financial advisors and private wealth distribution networks, explaining why its global reach is a significant advantage in 2025.
The key for EQT, Aliprantis said, is for the firm to offer individual investors the “exact same deals” it gives institutional investors.
EQT’s industrialist, international advantage
EQT was founded in 1994 as a spin-off from industrial holding company Investor AB, but the firm’s history stretches back to Sweden’s Wallenberg family. The Wallenbergs, called the “Rockefellers of Europe,” have created an empire of business holdings including massive stakes in Sweden’s biggest firms, like ABB, AstraZeneca, or Saab.
“The Wallenberg family has a 160-year heritage of owning and developing companies,” Aliprantis said. “We’re not financial engineers. We don’t add a lot of leverage to what we do, and we’re very, very different from what a lot of our peers on Wall Street are doing.”
Aliprantis’s comments echo a larger change in the industry, which is running out of easy money-making deals and cheap financing and now has to extract returns by actually building stronger companies.
But the firm’s biggest advantage, Aliprantis said, is its global nature.
Only 35% of its assets are based in North America, and the firm has 26 global offices where its deal teams invest in local private equity, infrastructure, and real estate deals.
“A lot of our colleagues based in New York will fly deal team partners over to different places around the world to do the deal and then get on a plan and fly home,” Aliprantis said. “Our deal teams are pretty much based in the locations where they do deals.”
This means the firm “gets the call” when local companies are looking to sell, and keeps them from larger “bake-offs” where the price might be bid-up.
This has also meant the firm can continue to provide distributions to its clients even if the market is slow in one locale.
“If you’re a US-based domicile private markets firm that has 70 to 80% of your assets in the US, guess what? If the US IPO market is slowing, you’re going to have a problem exiting,” Aliprantis said.
“Here in the US, it’s always been too much money chasing too few deals. You know what? That’s a US thing,” Aliprantis said.” If you go to Europe and you go to Asia, it’s the opposite.”
For example, Bain estimates there’s about $480 billion in dry powder for European private funds, including venture capital, compared to Pitchbook’s $914.5 billion for US-focused private equity firms, not including VC. Apollo’s Marc Rowan also recently told the Wall Street Journal that as an industry, they find themselves short ideas rather than capital.
Aliprantis said investors’ biggest reason to diversify away from the US market is its concentrated bet on AI.
“Their concern is that the Mag Seven is roughly 37% of the S&P right now, and valuations are stretched,” Aliprantis said. “Is AI really going to work? Is it not? How additive is it going to be to the bottom line? We don’t know.”
How to keep retail investors happy
Across the spectrum, Aliprantis said, the “biggest concern” is that retail investors are getting a set of less attractive deals, while institutional investors are getting a “separate set of deals.”
Aliprantis said that the firm’s six evergreen vehicles are composed of the “exact same deals” that its institutional clients invest in.
The key to doing that, and to being a responsible investor or retail capital, is “size and scale,” Aliprantis said.
Size also helps with the balance sheet necessary to launch a private wealth business. It can cost millions of dollars to hire the necessary staff to start selling to financial advisors and other wealth management channels before any revenue is returned to investors.
EQT was able to use its balance sheet, as a public company in Sweden, to build its private wealth team and now has 70 private wealth professionals globally, with 20 based in the US.
That’s not to say that smaller funds won’t succeed, but it will be much harder, Aliprantis said. With so many investors competing for retail capital, consolidation is inevitable.
“The race is on in the industry right now,” Aliprantis said.
This story is available exclusively to Business Insider
subscribers. Become an Insider
and start reading now. Have an account? .
Tesla scored a rare win in China, earning bragging rights over its biggest rival in the process.
Elon Musk’s automaker saw its sales rise by nearly 10% in November, while its arch-rival BYD’s fell.
Tesla has had a difficult year, with sales underwhelming in China and collapsing in Europe.
Things are finally looking up for Tesla in China.
The US automaker’s sales rose 9.9% in November compared to the same month last year, according to data released by China’s Passenger Car Association on Tuesday.
That’s a rare win for Tesla, which has had a difficult year in almost all of its biggest markets. The company has faced a sales collapse in Europe, been squeezed by intense competition in EV-friendly China, and is on track to see its overall sales decline for the second consecutive year.
One bright spot for Tesla: it’s not the only one with problems. The Elon Musk-run automaker’s biggest Chinese rival, BYD, has hit some speed bumps in recent months.
The Shenzhen-based EV giant, which has become one of China’s largest carmakers thanks to a range of affordable and high-tech electric models, has had three straight months of sales declines.
BYD said it sold just over 480,000 EVs and hybrids in November, its highest total this year, but still around 5.3% less than the same period in 2024.
The Chinese automaker, which was once backed by Warren Buffett, has struggled in the face of a renewed price war in China’s ultra-competitive EV market and a government crackdown on aggressive discounting.
Despite these headwinds, BYD is still on course to take Tesla’s crown as the world’s largest seller of battery EVs this year, and the company is rapidly taking market share from Musk and co. outside China.
BYD’s overseas sales hit a record 131,935 in November. The Chinese auto giant is taking advantage of Tesla’s woes in Europe, with BYD outselling its US rival by more than two to one in October.
